Buffet is buying real estate to demonstrate his belief in real estate value. Are the critics of Buffet on Jonathan Lansner’s blog selling to back up their belief?
I’m a Realtor working in South Orange County. What I am seeing is multiple offers on most of the properties priced under $800k, if there is not a problem with location or condition. I am seeing that banks are not offering to pay closing costs on foreclosures like they did last year. It is pretty common for a foreclosure to sell in less than a week in Irvine. It is hard to find property to show my buyers. There are positive signs in the South OC market compared to this time last year.
On the negative side, my buyers are still finding reasons to wait: Will there be a new wave of foreclosures next year? Why are short sale properties priced so low? And why are short sales on the market so long? Why doesn’t the bank respond to my short sale offer? They lost their down payment money in the stock market. The foreign currency exchange rate moved against them. And last but not least they lost their job.
With all that said I think that South OC real estate is going to be flat to slightly higher for the next few years. The days of making money flipping property are over unless you are willing to take on the pros and compete for risky trustee sales.
See the article on Lansner’s blog:
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/09/02/warren-buffetts-real-estate-bottom-part-2/35357/#comment-144833
September 4, 2009
Warren Buffet is buying real estate
September 2, 2009
Mello-Roos increase anticipated for Foothill Ranch
This came as a surprise to me: Mello-Roos assessments change from time to time depending on how the investments for the Community Facilities Districts are performing. CFD 87-4 is the Mello-Roos district for Foothill Ranch. I spoke to Don, an advisor to County Supervisor Pat Bates, today and he said that the increase is still being calculated by the consulting firm David Taussig & Associates, Inc. The increase is expected to be 2-3% over what you are paying now. For my house it is going up about $50.
Mello-Roos came about as a way for the counties to get around the Prop 13 tax reforms. If you would like to see what the maximum Mello-Roos assessment for your property, go to this link: http://cams.ocgov.com/Web_Publisher/mainlist.asp?docid=00000026&docname=Agenda08_04_2009.htm&meetdate=08_04_2009&pagendatypeid=1&pisagenda=1
Fortunately, the Mello-Roos assessments were written with a yearly increase cap, so we should not see a big jump in Mello-Roos.
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Links:
Patricia C. Bates
Board Chair
Supervisor, 5th District
County of Orange
333 W. Santa Ana Blvd.
Santa Ana, CA 92701
Phone 714.834.3550
Fax: 714.834.2670
PatBates@ocgov.com
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David Taussig & Associates, Inc.
http://www.taussig.com/index.html
Tuscany Foreclosure Starter Condo
Wow! You could buy a place in a gated community in Foothill Ranch for only $154,900. What a great place for a first time home buyer to get started and take advantage of the current market. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property! This property is approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing!
Foothill Ranch Highlands upgraded house $775k
This property is on a great street, not far from Foothill Ranch Elementary. The price is low because it does back to Rue de Fortuna which is the residential arterial street for the east side of Foothill Ranch. The comps are interesting on this street. There was a $1,000,000 sale for a highly upgraded house across the street and a foreclosure that sold for $625k.
July 22, 2009
What happend to the wave of foreclosures? Foothill Ranch Market Report
There are 33 properties in Foothill Ranch currently listed on the MLS. (One of them is actually in Portola Hills but entered incorrectly.) 22 short sales, 1 foreclosure and there are 10 normal sales.
14 properties have closed since July 1st: 5 short sales, 5 foreclosures and 4 normal sales.
61 properties are in escrow: 47 short sales, 4 foreclosures and 10 normal sales. When a short sale is in escrow on the MLS most of the time it is still awaiting the banks approval on the terms. Which means the chances of the escrow closing are low compared to normal sales.
To answer my question: What happened to the wave of foreclosures? It may still be coming because many of the 69 short sales in escrow and active on the market will probably become foreclosures in the next 6 months.
July 8, 2009
Unemployment in Foothill Ranch Lowest in County
Orange County’s unemployment rate broken down by city gives Foothill Ranch the top position of best in the county at 2.7%. In a county that averages 8.6%
http://www.ocmetro.com/t-Wide_range_among_cities_in_Orange_County_jobless_rates_7_7_09.aspx
Why this number is so low is explained in the article above. The unemployment rate is key economic factor when looking at real estate trends. Low unemployment is good for real estate. It is bad that the county is at a record high 8.6% but the low unemployment in several Orange County cities is a positive signal. Do you think it will lead to a stronger real estate market?
July 7, 2009
4th of July Parade Lake Forest CA
We had a great time marching in the parade. The Cub Scouts showed off their scooter skills. We walked from El Toro High down Toledo to Lake Forest Drive up to Serrano and back to the high school.
June 23, 2009
Mixed Signals on Mortgages
Whew what a day on the lending topic! In a meeting this morning at RE/MAX our in house lender spoke about the new rules that are making it harder to get a loan. By harder I mean it is now a longer process. We were advised to allow for 45 days to close an escrow. I won’t go into the rules here the list is too long for a quick post. At noon I heard a newscast about Barney Frank’s efforts to ease the lending guidelines for condos. So, in the short term it is tough to get a loan on a condo but the policy makers in Washington are kicking around the idea of relaxing the rules. See the article.
http://www.examiner.com/x-5187-Moving-and-Relocation-Examiner~y2009m6d22-New-Fannie-Mae-mortgage-lending-guidelines-discourage-relocation
June 19, 2009
Is there a Bubble in Education?
My experience bears out the gist of this article. In my area many High school graduations happened yesterday and the buzz was: let’s go to the JC for a couple of years to save money. They are asking what is the benefit of paying high tuition for undergrad course work that can be done at a JC for substantially less money?
The student can still get the prestige of the University degree even though half of his undergrad work was done at a JC.
To your point about foreign students being able to bring in enough money to keep the bubble inflated. I am skeptical because for many years in this area there has been a high ratio of foreign students to local students. How can we add more? I thought one of the big problems in higher education was there are not enough spots for the new students.
Just curious, is anyone in higher education talking about pay cuts or maybe shutting down for a month to save money?
Foothill Ranch, CA
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/06/19/is-higher-education-the-next-big-bubble/
California’s $10k credit is successful!
The California home new home buyer’s program is working well. Buyers better hurry because there is some concern that the program will run out of money. Did you know that many builders will cooperate with buyers who are represented by a Realtor? The builder will pay the commission and the buyer benefits by having an advocate who knows the contract and market dynamics.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/12/real_estate/10000_California_tax_credit/index.htm?postversion=2009061215